Proceedings | Finance area | Year 2014
 

Ambiguity attitudes in a large representative sample

by Stephen G. Dimmock; Roy Kouwenberg; Peter P. Wakker
  
  the 6th International conference on Mathematical & Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance in Vietri Sul Mare, Italy 22-24 April 2014

Abstract

We develop a theorem showing that ambiguity attitudes an easily be captured by matching probabilities of ambiguous events. Using this result, we introduce a tractable method for measuring ambiguity attitudes, and apply it in a large representative sample. In addition to ambiguity aversion, we confirm an ambiguity component recently found in laboratory studies: a-insensitivity- the tendency to treat subjective likelihoods as fifty-fifty, thus overweighting extreme events. Our ambiguity measurements are associated with real economic decisions; specifically, a-insensitivity is negatively related to stock market participation and private business ownership. Ambiguity aversion is weakly related to stock market participation, but is significant only for subjects who perceive stocks returns as highly ambiguous. Reference dependence can explain our findings, and provides a promising direction for further research.

Keywords: Ambiguity aversion, Uncertainty, Portfolio choice, Knightian uncertainty, Non-expected utility, Reference dependence, Stock market participation, Limited participation